Most of the big golf shows for the year have come and gone leaving behind  and overall mood that can probably be described as OPTIMISTIC.

The PGA Merchandise circus in Orlando this year heard numerous key players making enthusiastic reference to the industry turning around in the United States. This same sense of positivism was seen at the Golf Industry Show in Las Vegas. Like a gambler plagued by a streak of bad luck, the organisers perked up and crowed that good times were in the offing.

Those who attended the Beijing Golf Show and saw the usual throngs of human traffic grabbing available brochures and pamphlets and many from the international golf trade have left the Chinese capital hoping that quick sales will follow.
We don’t want to be killjoys but we think that a reality check is in order.  Our take is that the golf industry as a whole is desperately looking for signs of a big turn-around and is ready to pounce at any indication of promise and hope.

We do agree that there may be cause for some excitement but what bothers us is whether this so-called bounce back from the doldrums is sustainable. How sustainable is this upward blip? Is the reported demand all part of pent-up release caused by depressed market conditions over the past few years? How is Asia going to figure in the anticipated re-bound as it is an important market for golf in general?

We thought that the time is right for a thorough examination of what really is happening in Asia and how the shaky economies of this massive continent can blow the dreams of the golf industry to smithereens.  Let’s begin with the one single market that has virtually everyone in the industry hedging their bets on and that market is China.

The threatening economic indicator in the land of the fiery dragon is the property sector which is now in an acute state of oversupply. Official figures reveal that there were about 2.5 billion square metres of property under development in China last year. Analysts reckon that the disposal of this amount of property would take at least 30 months. Morgan Stanley, the influential American bank projects that by the end of 2012, the property inventory in China will rise to 38 months of normal sales.

This is a worrying sign because it will most certainly result in the Chinese government forcing a fire sale to bring down the inventory to the 2009 level which was about 23 months. It will result in new housing starts being squeezed to less than one-sixth of last year’s level and this is going to result in a massive cash sacrifice of US$93 billion in investments. This will amount to about 1.5 per cent of the communist nation’s GDP.

One China watcher warned, “A seismic movement of this scale will have serious ripple effects – it is a serious property time bomb and it can go off at any time.”

The other Asian behemoth is India and its deficit account is not looking healthy. Its import of goods and services over exports is climbing to about 4 per cent of GDP and this is beginning to threaten another balance-of-payment crisis similar to that which crippled the nation in 1990-1991. If left unchecked, the Indian Central Bank will have to dive in and pledge its gold reserves to pay for imports. What is most worrying is that if there are no good options to turn things around by the Indian government, the nation can be faced with a collapse of foreign investor confidence which in turn will result in a huge flight of capital.

With a slowdown in India and China, there is bound to be a cutback in the need for commodities like iron ore and steel which both these countries devour to feed their industries. When this happens, it will deliver a huge blow to Australia – a nation that has been selling to both China and India at extortionist prices for over a decade.  Australia is starring at a “resource bust” caused by reduced user demand for its commodities.

South Korea is the next nation that is not looking too healthy. The election manifesto of President Lee Myung Bak four years ago to deliver a “747” package of goodies has fallen flat on its face. The “747”  package was designed to give  the Korean people involved a steady 7 per cent economic growth, US$40,000 per capita income and to transform South Korea into the world’s seventh largest economy. None of these promises have been fulfilled and what is most threatening is that household debt in this East Asian nation is now almost double the pre-Asian financial crisis.

We are not peddling a doomsday crisis scenario. All we are trying to do is to attempt to provide some sort of an insight into what really is happening on the Asian continent and how this can impact the golf industry if it unravels.

All we are saying is let’s be cognisant of what is “really” happening in Asia and not to overact to little blips of and over interpret these to be signs of hope and growth.

I had the opportunity of attending the 2012 Golf Industry Show in Las Vegas earlier this month and I came away very impressed by how well organised the profession is under the highly respected banner of the Golf Course Superintendents Association of America (GCSAA).

For those of us who are unfamiliar with the GCSAA, it may perhaps prove useful to gain a quick insight – the GCSAA was originally founded in 1926 when 60 superintendents met at the Sylvania Country Club in Toledo, Ohio to form the National Association of Greenkeepers of America (NAGA).

GCSAA is a golf organization that has its focus on golf course management with a primary focus to provide a voice for and give credence and proper recognition to the golf course superintendent.

Headquartered in Lawrence, Kansas, the GCSAA provides education, information and representation to 19,000 members in more than 72 countries. GCSAA’s mission is to serve its members, advance their profession and enhance the enjoyment, growth and vitality of the game of golf. The association came into being because golf course superintendents saw a need to network and share their experiences on the maintenance and upkeep of golf courses.

We need something like the GCSAA in Asia. As it now stands there are some national associations in countries like Indonesia, Thailand and the Philippines.

Asia needs something that is more representative of the profession, structured and properly funded. The profession needs a critical mass to be taken seriously by golf course developers, owners and operators alike.

The population of golf course superintendents in the region can be broken into two distinct groups:

• Expatriates (Americans, Europeans, Australians & New Zealanders)
• Asians

By and large, the expatriates are predominantly certified professionals from their countries of origin. It is believed that there are about some 200 of these professional engaged in the region.

The Asian superintendents are, generally speaking, mostly not certified. Their backgrounds range from trained agronomists, horticulturalists, botanists and long serving turf maintenance staff.

What is lacking for these superintendents is holistic, on-going education that is delivered in the region. What are prevalent in the region at the moment are sporadic seminars and workshops staged by equipment, turf, and fertiliser/pesticide suppliers. Invariably, these ad hoc sessions are very business-driven and depending on the suppliers involved, these events are only open to their customers.

If the profession is to elevate its standing in the industry and if superintendents are to be granted the due recognition they deserve, a plan needs to be put in place that will keep them constantly informed, exposed and educated on state-of-the-art applications.

This cannot be achieved through ad hoc workshops and seminars organised by disparate groups.Superintendents in the region, both Asian and expatriates, need a recognised body to ensure that their services are recognised, accredited and rewarded.

The organisation that needs to be set up will have to be a body that is independent, owned and managed by superintendents and committed to the cause of growing the profession in the region.

After all, these are perhaps the most important custodians of golf courses in the region!

Perhaps the time is right for the GCSAA to look at the establishment of an Asian arm?

It’s like the Christmas season – a season to be merry! Over the past few weeks, the golf industry in the Western Hemisphere and the Eastern Hemisphere has been all abuzz about signs and indications of a turn-around in golf. Many in the “know”, talk enthusiastically about the moribund industry being on the cusp of revitalizing itself.

Golf watchers are attributing this to foot-traffic at events like the PGA Golf Merchandise Show and this seems to be validated by the glowing accounts of success delivered by some equipment manufacturers. The operative word is “some” – is the reported recovery a wide-spread phenomenon or is it just affecting a few players? We tend to think that it is the latter – the “some” accounts for a few who seem to be registering growth at the expense of
others.

The crux of the matter, whatever way you look at it, has got to come down to “real” growth in the game. From everything we hear, the game is not growing – rounds are down, number of players is on the slide and there is still a general air of despondency prevalent amongst many golf course owners.

Unlike America, we in most parts of Asia, do not have sophisticated
barometers in place to measure the health of the game and to provide us with timely statistics. Most everyone is flying by the seat of their pants and holding on for dear life in the hope that Asia will be the savior of the game. We think this is one big pipe dream!

Japan, by far the most mature golf market is lethargic to say the least. South Korea seems to be following the Japanese trend of decline. China – who knows? There seems to be a halt to the once frenetic pace of golf course development in the middle kingdom as the industry awaits a definitive “white paper” decision from Beijing. Will it ever come? Your guess is as good as ours!

As we wait, China’s once booming property market is going frigid and this will definitely impact the future of golf course development because most projects are property driven.

While all this negativism sweeps China, the China Golf Association is reported to have put out a bold claim that by 2020, the nation will boast more than 2500 golf courses and a playing population of 30 million golfers.Hey, where is this growth going to come from given the tight land reforms that China has to contend with and the growing swell of peasant discontent?

These guys obviously have access to a poppy field hidden away somewhere!

Let’s leave all the spin-doctoring aside and look at what really needs to be done, especially in Asia. Forget all the grow-the-game initiatives that the powers that be keep making reference to. Get down to brass tacs – follow the example that equipment manufacturers are taking to change and introduce new technologies that make the game more fun to play. Throw out the growth-shackling rules that govern the game for club players and amateurs – keep the rules for the professionals. Speed up the game. Reduce
participation costs. Just make it bloody simple and FUN to play!

We think that golf can grow, but some drastic measures have to be put in place to make it more relevant to the NOW GENERATION. If this call is not heeded, then just be prepared to accept that golf is not going to grow. It will be around and eventually, we may have to label it as an ENDANGERED SPORT!

A mini-session on identifyication of turfgrass diseases at the Golf Industry Tradeshow

In the next few weeks, Las Vegas will play host to the entire golf course industry in North America.

Hundreds of equipment manufacturers and suppliers of seed, turf, fertilisers, pesticides and a myriad of other downstream products and services providers will gather for the annual mecca which is the Golf Industry Show.

Walking down the hallways of the GIS event is an experience especially for one coming from Asia where we are literally starved of the full range of products and services for the effective and efficient operation of a golf course. Perhaps the best word to describe the experience is “envy”. Envy because we in Asia have no access to the full complement of what the industry has to offer. What we have to contend with is just a sprinkling of what is available.

This is really a deplorable state to operate in. Asian golf course developers and operators have invested and are continuing to invest buckets of cash on their projects. However, this pace of growth is not being matched by the industry insofar as the provision of equipment and supplies is concerned. Asia needs range and this is not available and it does not seem to show any signs of happening.

Something has to be done to change this situation around. Ways have to be found and systems have to be devised to provide a road-map for the hundreds of manufacturers and suppliers who line the alleys of the GIS show. Many of these companies want to come out to Asia, but they just don’t know how. The time has come for the Asian marketplace to be opened up. We need more players in the business to ensure that the golf course industry stays sharp and stays abreast with state-of-the-art technologies and practices.

The days for monopolies are coming to a grinding halt. Let those of us who are progressively minded change the business landscape. We can do it collectively. All we need is resolve and commitment. This in itself will send out positive vibes to new players to venture out to Asia.

Onwards!

Oxford Golf & Country Club in Pune, India

A ten-day business trip to India proved to be a real eye-opening experience for me.

This sprawling nation with a teeming population is on the cusp of a major explosion in golf – almost everyone I met with or talked to was extremely bullish about the growth of golf in India.

Developers, at least those whom I met, were all committed to building golf courses within integrated communities. This mood was prevalent in every city that I visited. Golf courses and the growth of the game was the prevalent buzz in Aamby Valley, Pune, Chennai, Bangalore, Coimbotre, Mumbai, Ahmedabad, Hyderabad and New Delhi.

The buzz is just not hype – most of the developers who are committed to building golf courses and growing the game have put their money where their mouth is. They have land banks already in their possession or are making arrangements to grow their respective land banks.

Most of the new courses that are currently in construction or being planned are an integral part of real estate developments with properties valued from as low as US$250,000 to big ticket villas going for millions of dollars.

What about the buyers? There seems to be no shortage of money in India! This south Asian nation currently has a US$1.6 trillion economy which is adding US$120 billion in output every year.

According to a recent report by the wealth management unit of Merrill Lynch, the number of US dollar millionaires grew 51% to 126,000 last year. India is producing new millionaires faster than any other country as incomes rise and asset prices climb.

It is projected that by 2016, India expects to have 219,000 high nett worth households with a total wealth of US$6.4 trillion! Add to this the fact that there are now some 70 billionaires in the country.

Based on the statistics, India is poised for a big golf boom and given its long and established tradition in golf, the growth is going to be a healthy one. Aside from new golf courses being developed, there is a genuine interest in the game. Driving ranges are humming with activity. Junior golf development programmes are aggressively being promoted and are being enthusiastically supported. This is great for golf!

Another side-bar worth noting – Indian players occupy four of the top eleven spots on the Asian Tour Order of Merit with S.S.P. Chowrasia leading the pack. This is tangible evidence that Indian golf has its heroes who in turn are going to be excellent role models to help spur the growth of golf.

There is denying the fact that within the next five to ten years, India will become the new poster-boy for global golf. It’s about time that this cricket-mad country embraced another sport and it looks certain that golf will be that sport of choice amongst Indians!

In the past couple days we learned that the Callaway CEO (George Fellows) resigned from his position and was replaced by what they are calling their new interim CEO (Tony Thornley). No real shock honestly…the company has been in trouble for quite some time from a financial standpoint. And I think the “interim” term should not be ignored in this particular instance. I think it contains some possible foreshadowing regarding his future and the companies.

But before we get to all that….

Remember the days when Callaway released clubs like the Big Bertha, Great Big Bertha & Biggest Big Bertha drivers? And who could forget the Callaway Hawkeye Tungsten irons which sold like hotcakes at a whopping $1500 a set! These products and their launches forever changed the ways golf products were sold. Callaway was king of the hill at that time. Everything they launched turned to gold.

Times sure have changed. Not only is Taylormade now king of the hill but the economy has made it so the $1500 iron set purchase is a thing of the past. So what went wrong and why did things change? Well you could say that “Jump The Shark” moment for the brand began with the death of Ely Callaway. The profit numbers and market share numbers stayed pretty steady for a few years after because of what he built but have been on a steady decline since.

And even more recently I feel the area that hurt Callaway the most was simply a lack of innovation, sticking with a technology too long and being out of touch with today’s golf consumer. I will give you an example:
Sticking With A Technology Too Long

The unfortunate piece of this topic is that I honestly feel that Callaway’s current product line is the strongest line of products in its history. You might be shocked to hear that…especially when thinking of some of those previous clubs I spoke about them launching back in the 90′s. And that is the unfortunate part..consumers don’t get to see what we do when we test their products. And what we see is that Callaway has some great performing drivers, irons and wedges in their stable. So why doesn’t it translate to sales and market share growth?

Well my honest opinion and one I have spoken to multiple Callaway employees about is the fact they stuck with the carbon fiber driver technology way too long. Remember the Callaway C4 driver? It was a complete bust! But they stuck with the technology and have continued to improve on it year after year. So much so…that their past few carbon fiber drivers are some of the best performing drivers we have tested with that same technology.

Sounds great right…

Problem is no matter how good their new drivers are…they look the same as the old ones to the average golfer. So when they see that new Callaway driver on the rack in their store…it looks the same as just about every other driver they have launched for the past 10 years. Result: the golfer walks right by it and sees that flashy whit thing every body has been talking about. And they have not been talking about it because its longer or straighter which should be the reason golfers are flocking to it. Golf consumers are a finnicky bunch. And drivers….well drive sales for the rest of a line for the most part. Golfers love to hear those 15 yard increase claims every year…as other sports might put it, “They put asses in the stands.” Drivers put golfers in the stores.
What Will Change At Callaway?

With a net loss of around $55 million dollars this quarter the new “Interim CEO” has his work cut out for him. But honestly I think he’s just there to cut the fat. And get Callaway down to a lean, mean, well oiled machine. Which unfortunately for Callaway some other golf companies saw well before 2011. So is it too little too late for the Callaway brand? I don’t think so. In my opinion it wouldn’t take much to turn this ship around. And if you ever wanted to buy some Callaway stock (ELY) yesterday might have been a good time. So will the current CEO see what so many others in the business see as obvious or will he only be an axe man…and ignore the product line…we will have to wait and see.

CONTRIBUTED BY MYGOLFSPY

Looks like there is finally a cure for the yips, or is it just wishful thingking? In a special write-up in the New York Times, the esteemed newspaper report said, “Among the many embarrassments golf can dole out, missing a short putt may be the worst. The stroke starts with a twitch of the hands and a flip of the wrist, and then the ball lips out of the cup or skitters wide of the hole. And sometimes, with recreational golfers, the ball does not move at all because they have bounced the putter over it.

Known as the yips — but also the jumps, the shakes, the jitters and the flinches — the affliction is often linked to a kind of performance anxiety, reflecting perhaps an erosion of confidence or a weakness of will. Even some of the game’s heavyweights — including Ben Hogan, Sam Snead, Lee Trevino, Johnny Miller, Bernhard Langer and, more recently, Tiger Woods — have battled it.

For years, the yips were thought to have psychological or neurological roots, ideas supported two Mayo Clinic studies. But a hypothesis has emerged pointing to a muscular source — the result of a buildup of scar tissue in the forearms — for the involuntary twitch that sets off the yips.

The new notion that the yips can be muscular in nature comes from Robert Anthony Prichard, a San Francisco sports biomechanics expert best known for his work in swimming and track and field. Prichard gained some golf credibility recently by analyzing video of the driver swing of a young Arnold Palmer, calling it the most efficient in pro golf history.

Prichard said he was analyzing the swings of some of golf’s greatest ball-strikers for his book, “The Efficient Golfer,” when he noticed that Snead, Hogan and Trevino all restrained their driver swing in order to return the club at impact to its original position. A friend, Prichard said, pointed out that they had one other thing in common: the yips.

“They were gripping the driver very hard, so as to limit extension at impact,” Prichard said. “The driver head is going over 100 miles an hour through space and is pulling away from the golfer with 100 pounds of force. Even though this pull only lasts for a fraction of a second, it is repeated over and over again and it results in the tearing of hundreds of the tens of thousands of small individual muscle fibers that make up each muscle in the forearms.”

Over time, Prichard said, the accumulation of scar tissue and the tension in the forearms from fighting centrifugal force causes spasms when a golfer grips the putter lightly, activating the same set of muscles. In other words, what was good for consistent ball-striking was ultimately bad for putting.

The cure, according to Prichard, is not a visit to a sports psychologist. He recommends two things: when preparing to drive, a golfer should change the position of the hands by raising them higher and moving them a few inches farther from the body; and the golfer should get massage therapy to connective tissue, to release the scar tissue that has accumulated.

Hank Haney, Woods’s former swing coach, has seen thousands of cases of the yips at his golf academies across the country — from putting to chipping to driver yips — and says he there are many causes and no single cure.

“I’ve seen kids as young as 11 years old who have played very little golf who have the yips,” Haney said. “A woman student of mine, a surgeon, was fine in the operating room but had terrible yips putting, one of the worst I’ve ever seen. I’ve also seen younger players, 14- to 15-year-olds, whose father or mother also had the yips, which suggests an obvious hereditary component to it.”

So what do you reckon? Is there a cure for the yips?

D-Day has been set! By the end of June 2011 each local government in China is required to submit a list of golf courses in its area that is deemed illegal.

The full report on the new regulations issued by the National Development and Reform Commission in Beijing is published in the June issue of Asian Golf Business.

China first imposed a moratorium on golf course development back in 2004 but it was largely ignored by many provincial governments. In fact, the ruling was ignored and many golf courses werte developed without seeking approval from the government. It may come as shocking news to many that in the capital city of Beijing, there is apparently only one golf course that is considered legal! The current crackdown is aimed at curbing the illegal use of land, especially for the construction of real estate, luxury villas and golf courses.

Reliable reports from the law enforcement and supervision department of the Chinese Ministry of Land and Resources reveal that there were a total of 53,000 cases of illegal land use across the country in 2010, which gives an indication of the scale of the challenge posed by seeking to protect this scarce resource. The cases involved 27,866 hectares of land, an increase of 1.1 percent on 2009 . Moreover, about 10,933 hectares of the total land illegally used in 2010 were on arable land.

Some stern action has already taken place with 2,582 people being punished for illegally using land in 2010 and 239 of them being criminally convicted . Statistics from the ministry indicate that more than 2.5 billion yuan ( US $378 million) in fines were issued in China last year for the illegal use of land.

The use of land in 2,895 cities is monitored by satellite surveillance, a practice China began in 2000 with an initial 66 cities in 25 provinces, municipalities and autonomous regions and this practice has played a significant role in protecting the country’s land supply by helping detect cases in which it is being illegally used.

The crackdown has been on-going – in June 2008, Beijing Hongfenghu Ecological Garden Co Ltd illegally occupied 65 hectares of land, to build a golf course. The land was all reclaimed by the end of December 2010.

From December 2009 to September 2010, the Three Gorges Hongming Tourism and Real Estate Development Company in Yichang, Hubei province, illegally used 42 hectares of land to build golf courses, villas and entertainment facilities.

Since May 2009, Xiaobu Village Ecological Garden Investment and Development Company illegally built a golf course on 143 hectares of land and the course opened on Sept 30, 2010.

Stay tuned as we bring you more updates on the carnage that is expected from the latest Chinese crackdown.